Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
01What is this market?
Bets on whether Barack Obama will become the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. He'd need a constitutional amendment to run again.
02Why is it trending now?
With Democrats rebuilding after 2024's losses, speculation about future candidates is surging. Obama remains the party's most popular figure, driving curiosity despite clear legal barriers.
03What does 1% mean?
At 1%, markets say this is essentially impossible — reflecting that the 22nd Amendment bars Obama from a third term, making this a near-certain No.
04Price history
Probability has stayed near 1% consistently, reflecting the constitutional impossibility of a third Obama term.
05Key takeaways
Obama is constitutionally barred from a third term. Watch who actually enters the 2028 race as the real story unfolds.
AI generated on 3/30/2026
Until close
7d Trend
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