Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
01What is this market?
Bets on whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting. Currently 96% chance of no change.
02Why is it trending now?
With inflation cooling but still above target and recession fears growing amid trade policy uncertainty, markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to stay on hold in April 2026 rather than cut or hike.
03What does 97% mean?
A 96% probability means markets are nearly certain the Fed won't move rates in April 2026 — only a 4% chance of any cut or hike.
04Price history
Probability has remained high and stable near 95-96%, reflecting strong consensus for a Fed pause at this meeting.
05Key takeaways
Near-certain hold expected. Watch for inflation data, jobs reports, and Fed guidance that could shift the small remaining uncertainty.
AI generated on 3/27/2026
Until close
7d Trend
Related News
Related Markets
Will the Fed cut interest rates at least once before July 2026?
Will the Federal Funds Rate be below 4% by end of 2026?
Will the Fed hold rates steady at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?
Will US inflation (CPI) remain above 3% through Q1 2026?