POLY2d left

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Yes Prob.

No 99%Yes 1%

$1.6M

24h Volume

$1.7M

Liquidity

2d left

Until close

100

BUZZ

1%▼ -1% (7日)

Polymarket CLOB API1時間間隔

AI Generated

01What is this market?

Bets on whether Iran's ruling regime—Supreme Leader, IRGC, Guardian Council—completely collapses or is replaced before March 31, 2026.

02Why is it trending now?

With $1.77M in 24h volume and only 4 days left, traders are finalizing positions. Iran faces economic pressure, protest history, and regional instability, but no imminent collapse signals.

03What does 1% mean?

At 1%, markets say there's roughly a 1-in-100 chance the Islamic Republic falls in days—essentially ruling it out barring an extraordinary, sudden event.

04Price history

Probability has held near 1% throughout, reflecting deep skepticism despite periodic Iran unrest speculation.

05Key takeaways

Near-certain 'No' resolution in 4 days. Watch for any sudden military coup or mass uprising signals, though none are present.

AI generated on 3/27/2026

News That Moved This Market

AI matched

NHK3h ago

イラン軍事作戦1か月米国務長官 “作戦は数週間で終わる”

軍事作戦継続中でイラン政権崩壊は遠い

↓Pushes Yes probability lower

View & Trade on Polymarket→Share on X →

This site displays Polymarket data for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Until close

days left

March 31

7d Trend

Yes Prob.

7dnow