POLY32d left

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Yes Prob.

No 92%Yes 8%

$721K

24h Volume

$1.1M

Liquidity

32d left

Until close

BUZZ

8%▼ -5% (7日)

Polymarket CLOB API1時間間隔

AI Generated

01What is this market?

Bets on whether Iran's ruling Islamic Republic—including the Supreme Leader, IRGC, and clerical structures—will fully lose power before May 2026.

02Why is it trending now?

Heightened US-Iran nuclear tensions, Israeli strikes on Iran's air defenses in 2024, and ongoing domestic unrest post-Mahsa Amini protests keep regime stability in question heading into 2025.

03What does 8% mean?

At 9%, markets see regime collapse as unlikely but not impossible—roughly the odds of a major earthquake hitting a specific city in a given month.

04Price history

Probability has fluctuated between 5–12%, spiking on escalation events like US sanctions and regional military strikes.

05Key takeaways

Watch for mass protests, military defections, or nuclear deal breakdown. A 9% chance signals real but low risk of collapse.

AI generated on 3/27/2026

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This site displays Polymarket data for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Until close

days left

April 30

7d Trend

Yes Prob.

7dnow