Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
01What is this market?
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 or more basis points at its April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting? Tracks the upper bound of the fed funds rate.
02Why is it trending now?
With $1.96M in 24h volume, traders are actively pricing Fed policy amid tariff-driven uncertainty. Markets see near-zero odds of an aggressive 50+ bps cut in April 2026.
03What does 0% mean?
At 0% probability, the market is essentially certain the Fed will NOT cut rates by 50+ bps at the April 2026 meeting. Consensus strongly favors no large cut.
04Price history
Probability has hovered near 0%, reflecting persistent Fed hawkishness and no credible signals of aggressive easing by April 2026.
05Key takeaways
Market rules out a 50+ bps cut. Watch upcoming Fed statements and inflation data for any shift in tone heading into April 2026.
AI generated on 3/27/2026
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7d Trend
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