Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
01What is this market?
This market bets on whether California Governor Gavin Newsom will secure the Democratic Party's presidential nomination for the 2028 election.
02Why is it trending now?
After Democrats' 2024 loss, Newsom has aggressively positioned himself as a party leader, debating Republicans and touring early-primary states, fueling 2028 speculation.
03What does 24% mean?
At 24%, markets see Newsom as a leading but far-from-certain contender — roughly a 1-in-4 chance in a wide-open field with no incumbent.
04Price history
Probability has fluctuated between 15–30% as Newsom raises his profile post-2024 while other potential candidates also emerge.
05Key takeaways
Newsom is a top-tier contender but faces a crowded field. Watch his fundraising, state-level moves, and party positioning through 2026 midterms.
AI generated on 3/27/2026
Until close
7d Trend
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