POLY

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Yes Prob.

No 97%Yes 3%

$2.5M

24h Volume

$657K

Liquidity

—

Until close

100

BUZZ

Probability Trend-4pp (7d)

AI Generated

01What is this market?

Bets on whether the US and Iran will announce a mutual, official ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2025.

02Why is it trending now?

US-Iran tensions remain elevated amid nuclear negotiation standoffs, proxy conflicts, and ongoing regional hostilities in the Middle East, drawing fresh attention to direct escalation risks between Washington and Tehran.

03What does 3% mean?

At 5%, markets see a formal US-Iran ceasefire as very unlikely — roughly a 1-in-20 chance within the timeframe.

04Price history

Probability has remained low and stable, reflecting no credible ceasefire signals from either government.

05Key takeaways

Watch for direct diplomatic breakthroughs or surprise military escalation. Currently, a ceasefire is considered highly improbable.

AI generated on 3/27/2026

News That Moved This Market

AI matched

NHK3h ago

イラン軍事作戦1か月米国務長官 “作戦は数週間で終わる”

数週間で終わるとの発言が停戦交渉を示唆

↑Pushes Yes probability higher

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7d Trend

Yes Prob.

7dnow