US forces enter Iran by March 31?
01What is this market?
Resolves YES if US military personnel physically set foot on Iranian soil by March 31, 2025. Intel operatives and diplomats don't count.
02Why is it trending now?
Tensions remain high after Trump administration warnings to Iran over Houthi support and nuclear program. Recent US strikes in the region and diplomatic ultimatums have traders watching closely.
03What does 8% mean?
At 16%, markets see a ground incursion as unlikely but not impossible — roughly the odds of rolling a 1 on a die within the next 4 days.
04Price history
Volume spiked to $2.5M in 24hrs suggesting renewed interest as the March 31 deadline approaches with no confirmed incursion yet.
05Key takeaways
No entry reported yet. Watch for breaking news of US special forces operations or escalating strikes inside Iranian borders.
AI generated on 3/27/2026
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