PROPHETv7
POLY32d left

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

55%
Yes Prob.
No 45%Yes 55%
$859K
24h Volume
$299K
Liquidity
32d left
Until close
80
BUZZ
Probability Trend-3pp (7d)
47%54%61%3/213/233/253/263/28
AI Generated

01What is this market?

Bets on whether US military personnel will physically enter Iran's territory for operational purposes before April 30, 2025.

02Why is it trending now?

US-Iran nuclear talks are underway, while Trump has threatened military action if negotiations fail. Regional tensions remain high following strikes on Houthi targets and warnings to Iran.

03What does 55% mean?

A 62% chance means markets lean toward US troops entering Iran, but uncertainty is high — roughly a coin flip with slight bias toward military incursion.

04Price history

Volume surged to $808K in 24h, suggesting rapid probability shifts tied to recent diplomatic and military developments.

05Key takeaways

Watch US-Iran nuclear negotiation outcomes and any escalation in proxy conflicts. A breakdown in talks sharply raises resolution odds.

AI generated on 3/27/2026

News That Moved This Market

AI matched
NHK3h ago
イラン軍事作戦1か月 米国務長官 “作戦は数週間で終わる”
AI

作戦長期化見通しで米軍関与拡大の可能性

↑Pushes Yes probability higher
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This site displays Polymarket data for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Until close

32
days left
April 30

7d Trend

Yes Prob.
7dnow

Related News

NHK
イラン軍事作戦1か月 米国務長官 “作戦は数週間で終わる”
Bloomberg
Trump Warns of Military Options as Iran Nuclear Talks Stall, Raising Regional Tension
Reuters
Pentagon Denies Imminent Iran Operation Plans Amid Escalating Diplomatic Standoff
The New York Times
U.S. Repositions Naval Assets in Gulf as Iran Enrichment Accelerates, Officials Say

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